What is your weather like ... today

j.w

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Nope. Unfortunately the big solar flare produced no northern lights. It was a complete dud. It reached earth in the AM hours before dawn but didn't produce lights.

But we did have Northern lights earlier tonight. There was a very quick solar substorm that produced lights in a bunch of states including my own. I wasn't able to catch them.
According to this report from our: https://www.facebook.com/WaWxChasers
they saw and photographed the Northern Lights at 4:50am here.
Too early for me 🥰
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JBtheExplorer

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Wooo! Substorm just hit about 30 mins ago! I used my phone and it shows up SO much better than my camera! In reality you could faintly see the magenta, and the green was visible but it just looked like a lighter sky.

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JBtheExplorer

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A second substorm hit just before midnight and it was brighter than the first! So bright that I overexposed it a bit. I knew this one was coming so I got to watch it from start to finish! This was the second best aurora of the year.

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addy1

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70 day 43 night, perfect! Slider open in the bedroom, love it
 

JBtheExplorer

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Wanted to make this graphic that shows reality vs. expectation, and having the vivid memory of what I saw last night helped me do this. Being in my light polluted city doesn't help, but a long exposure brings out far more light and color than the eye can see. It probably looks underwhelming to those who haven't seen them before, but with the light moving, brightening, and dimming, it still looks really cool in person. I'm sure it looks far better out in the darkest areas away from light.


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j.w

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Wanted to make this graphic that shows reality vs. expectation, and having the vivid memory of what I saw last night helped me do this. Being in my light polluted city doesn't help, but a long exposure brings out far more light and color than the eye can see. It probably looks underwhelming to those who haven't seen them before, but with the light moving, brightening, and dimming, it still looks really cool in person. I'm sure it looks far better out in the darkest areas away from light.


View attachment 166048
Ok this answers the question I just asked you in the weather thread. That's what I saw on the left photo before going to bed about10pm or so our time.
 

JBtheExplorer

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Another solar flare happened yesterday. So now I wait to see if we get auroras. Could arrive tomorrow.

Screenshot 2024-10-09 094328.png


I am well into the forecasted viewing area, which is good. This is the best forecast I've seen since the big May show.
Hopefully it arrives early tomorrow night. My worry is that it will happen after sunrise.

Screenshot 2024-10-09 094557.png
 
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JBtheExplorer

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NOAA's current forecast is for the CME to hit sometime tomorrow morning or mid-day, but they've also said we could remain in the CME cloud for potentially over a day. They were asked if this could be as big as the May event, they said its possible, but reminded people the May event was caused by two CME's combining into one event, and this is just one big CME. They're expecting G4 storm conditions with a 25% chance of G5 conditions. They don't know when the aurora itself will be visible nor how long it might be visible.
 

j.w

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NOAA's current forecast is for the CME to hit sometime tomorrow morning or mid-day, but they've also said we could remain in the CME cloud for potentially over a day. They were asked if this could be as big as the May event, they said its possible, but reminded people the May event was caused by two CME's combining into one event, and this is just one big CME. They're expecting G4 storm conditions with a 25% chance of G5 conditions. They don't know when the aurora itself will be visible nor how long it might be visible.
Exciting but could be scary also!
So this could happen tomorrow morning to midday.
Will we see anything or feel anything? Or is it one of those deals where you can't look near the sun? Not sure what to expect if anything.

G4 (Severe) Storm Watch for 10-11 October
published: Wednesday, October 09, 2024 14:44 UTC

A fast coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 8 October, 2024, and is likely to arrive at Earth on 10 October. This CME has been analyzed and speed estimates are 1200 to 1300 km/s. This makes for a potential arrival time as early as the morning to midday of 10 October EDT. There is potential to reach G4 (Severe) upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage. We won’t know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites. Please visit our webpage for the latest information and updates.

https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-watch-10-11-october
 

JBtheExplorer

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Exciting but could be scary also!
So this could happen tomorrow morning to midday.
Will we see anything or feel anything? Or is it one of those deals where you can't look near the sun? Not sure what to expect if anything.

You wont see anything as it happens during the day. The main thing we'll see are the northern lights tomorrow night, assuming it has hit us by then and we're still in it. (Last month we had a smaller geomagnetic storm produce northern lights, but it arrived 24 hours later than expected, so I don't think their timing prediction is very good.)

I think the biggest issue with this kind of stuff has to do with our power grid as well as satellite signals. There are things in place to help protect our power grids, but there's always potential for small blackouts. But with this expected to be no bigger than the May event, I assume nothing significant will happen. They did say this is only the second G4 warning they've put out in 20 years. The other was in May. They also said it's uncommon for two G4 storms in one solar cycle, and mentioned that our last solar cycle peak had none.

I'm excited, but also ready for a let down because you just never know. I think we're expecting clouds to roll in early Friday morning so that could be an issue for me.


The only other visual thing is if you have eclipse glasses you can see the large sunspot that caused this. I took this photo earlier today.

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JBtheExplorer

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The CME has reached earth and things are starting to ramp up in the dark parts of the world. Looks like Europe is going to get a great show tonight. The timing forecast was spot on. Hopefully it's still putting on a show in... 9 hours.
 

j.w

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The CME has reached earth and things are starting to ramp up in the dark parts of the world. Looks like Europe is going to get a great show tonight. The timing forecast was spot on. Hopefully it's still putting on a show in... 9 hours.
Clouds here but sun is supposed to clear things! Maybe I will see something later on?
 

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