I'm almost positive the ice did divert the water under the liner. It did so by the skimmer box, where there is a gap in the liner at the top. There is water there right now. I've checked elsewhere, and the liner edges on the upper part of the pond--top of the slope--are far from the pond on the far side of my berms (I have very large pieces of liner). The liner edges are far from the pond everywhere, in fact, except for at that spot. My water level is nowhere near the rim of my pond; I have a sunken pond. There is no "natural" overflow possible, except via the ice. What I actually think facilitated the water diversion was my netting. With the ice, the netting became a big draped sheet of ice that overhung that spot and got weighted down so that it was in contact with the water. When the ice melted, the netting was actually touching the bottom liner, which looked quite odd. I'm also not ruling out the possibility that the ice undid my fix for the initial skimmer leak. The new seal might not have been strong enough.
My main waterfall is 15 feet away from the pond; when it lost water in the Fall, it just made the area around it damp and had nothing to do with the pond itself. The stream liner also overhangs the pond by two feet. The last time my pond bubbled up was in early September when it was the skimmer that was leaking. I have a de-icer coming; the one I initially bought was the wrong one. I was going to get a pond breather, but now I know I need the ice kept away from that area of the pond, which is why when I ordered the new deicer with the ice melt I didn't get the breather. I also have an aerator, but I'm waiting for protective covering to arrive as well before I can get that set up. I would never have thought that an item made for ponds would not be weather resistant, but there it is. I'm hoping everything arrives before the next big freeze, but we're not expecting one for at least a couple of weeks here, so I'm not worried about that. This is about when I intended to change out the pump anyway. I am sorry that I misread your initial instructions about siphoning, morewater; that was the vital missing piece.