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plenty of science to back up what I've said and I'm echoing what Meyer has told us. But, I'm sure you think he didn't know anything either...all is well because as long as you're recommending the heater and now a cover, no one's fish should die from your advice.
Neither you, Mitch or anybody else I know has wintered their Koi or Goldfish in Canada for 27 years. I have many well respected friends on my Facebook that told a few so called KOI experts from down south off when they too tried to ridicule me. I have seen many friends over the many years lose all their koi after one long bad winter. Even our KOI Guy here in town is amazed that I have had such success and sadly he too lost lots of his big koi over the years. I tried to give him advice but he thought his pond was too big to freeze that hard and all he used was a big air pump and that too froze off.
I only covered my ponds last two years as I now have 4th pond that is 5 feet deep {and it flows to three other connecting ponds} and the one 1500 watt heater was strugging to keep holes opened when it was only -20 and I have to face temps down below minus 40 degrees and worse, just like Mitch.
You should be respectful cause I have such vast experience wintering Koi. I liked and respected Meyer very much,as he was very helpful and had much knowledge, but he never wintered KOI in harsh conditions either.
You should also be very respectful to Sissy as she is a very valuable and helpful member of this forum.
Over the many years I have wintered my ponds, I too had problems and worked them all out. Knowledge comes with first hand experience and years of struggling in this very harsh environment. And it is true that pond water cannot be super chilled as water here that runs off the land and out of our faucets are rich in minerals and salts and that prevent water from getting super chilled. If you are worried you can always add extra salt to your pond.
AIR PUMPS the truth is that this method works for people that don't have severe winters and it should also be noted that the air pump should suit the size of the pond so that the fish can relax in a quiet deep area away from the pump to relax and conserve energy. Air pumps tend to condensate and freeze shut in severe winter weather and that makes them unsuitable for harsh winters.
POND BREATHERS are not good for severe winters either as the whole pond freezes way too hard when its minus 20 and 40 below for weeks on end. There is no sense in keeping a small hole open when the rest of the pond is frozen solid as the large fish will most likely be dead as they run out of space and air under the ice in our small backyard ponds. So please quit recommending the pond breather to people with koi and goldfish in harsh climates. If you do recommend this pond breather please recommend that they have a cheap 1500 watt cattle heater or 1250 watt pond heater as backup for severe weather.
POND HEATERS ... Everybody should have one if they have severe winter weather of minus 10 or below for extended periods. If the weather is going down to minus 20 Celsius for a short time and the ground is not froze solid 4 or more feet down, then they should be ok, but if the severe weather lasts for days and the ground is freezing very hard, then you can expect your pond to have at least two feet of ice without a pond heater. Most large fish and KOI will not survive two feet of ice unless your backyard pond is a very deep large lake...
THE BEST WAY TO WINTER your pond is to have pumps and good filters all below the ice, that way they will not freeze too hard and run the water close to the heater to evenly circulate the heat in the water.
It would be best if your ponds were designed like mine, as I have the largest Koi in the top ponds, and flow the water like a river or creek down to the bottom pond where ideally it is stocked with lots of plants and only small fish. The freshest water is always in the top ponds and the water level in the upper ponds are always pumped to a maximum and then the excess water flows back down to the bottom ponds. The upper ponds will always have the least amount of ice as the water level is always at the same level as the ice. THIS IS IMPORTANT cause that way you will have the least amount of ice as the moving water erodes the ice very quickly and that is why the rivers and streams breaks up the ice first, weeks before the lakes and ponds. Take a look at your local river and notice how it will have an ice breakup weeks before any lake in the area....
Listen to me and you will learn much from my old pond videos before I covered the ponds
Notice how the water in the upper ponds is at the same level as the ice. This keeps ice down very well...