There is a correlation between air temp and water temp. You can make a series of tests to determine what the correlation is. Assuming this correlation is more or less constant, all you need to do is to Google the air temp in your locality. You will not need to measure the water temp. every time.
I agree with Jhn on this correlation between air and water temperature we employ a remote pond thermometer and a weather station unit with remote this gives us a close idea what is happening in the pond which by 10c is covered and the airtmperature outside.
Because of the cooling of the resorvours which is relevent to air temperatures we need to kmow exactly the temperature of our tap water as it leaves the tap .
If like us you continue with water changes throughout winter there is a danger of cooling from the taps, so air temperatures on those days gives us a general idea of what the tap water is.
This exactly why we employ the trickle method of water going back into the pond i;e were the trickle of water through a dechlorination unit, going into your pond is heated by the ambient temperature of the pond water itself.
This way there isnt a major drop in temperature which could be dangerous for the fish if done correctly you shouldnt loose much in the way of water temperature it takes some time but is worth a peice of mind .
rgrds
Dave