Does the answer to the question "should I do a water change on my pond" become more critical if the pond is located in a dry or humid environment, or if the source water is hard or soft?
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Depends on what you are doing to the water... I know folk want to try to claim a plastic lined hole in the ground is "all natural" thus needs little or near zero maintenance... if you look at nature (in my opinion as far as I have seen)... there is no "naturally occurring" 2,000 gallon healthy ponds with fish (that are still alive)...
"Should I do a water change?" depends on... what are your goals? where is your pond located? what are you doing to the pond? what are you not doing to the pond? what is Mother Nature doing to your pond? etc etc...
In integrated multi-trophic recirculating aquaculture (IMTRA) systems (i.e., an agriculture industry involving watergardens on steroids, referred to as aquaponics in the hobby arena), they never do any purposeful water changes since they have the proper filtration involved and control their source water best they can... These fellas also have a balance "plant to fish" and don't do anything that screws up the "ecosystem".
Salts such as sodium and chlorides (etc etc) can become a problem after some years, even sooner if the human or Mother Nature or water runoff (or etc etc) is supplementing the pond water. ... However... If you are in an area that receives rain, then this added water from a heavy rain can implement a decent enough water change... So... even for salts like sodiums and chlorides... you might not need to do a water changed... by the ways, takes ALOT of chlorides to incur any type of phototoxicity in plants or fish ((personally, I never seen "too much" chlorides happen even within aquaponics))
Problem the most overlooked variable involving water changes is water temperature... a quick change in water temperature can shock fish and, if change is big enough, can result to allowing secondary ailments occur. This is why I think nobody should ever do a water change during winter... If your pond water is 45*F and your source water is 60*F, then this possible could mean bad news depending on quick the change is...
I have hard, alkaline water... and I know exactly what I am doing (and not doing) to my pond... so I implement a type of "flow through" water change... that where something like, every hour, 5~10% of the pond's water is emptied to water my trees or flower beds or little garden plot and then adding 10% freshwater at the same time...
I would say NO to water changes... unless... you know exactly why are you doing for a good reason rather than "should, just because it seems healthier"... this is especially true if your water is quite soft and acidic.... not as a big deal with hard, alkaline water (assuming you know what is in your source water).