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I just did Mitch ....
If you look through the calculations and even try to plug in some numbers, (they don't have to be exact), you'll see all the various routes there are for heat to leave your pond.
You can reduce the speed that heat leaves your pond by putting a cover over the pond, or allow for sunshine to more directly hit the pond (which will add heat). Until you reduce the avenues through where heat that can leave your pond, it just doesn't add up where 3500 btu's of heat will overcome the greater amount of heat loss.
All a floating heater does in an outside pond is melt the floating ice in the immediate vicinity.
I tried a 1500w heater on my pond, and with the cold weather, dry wind and deep frost line we have here, the 1500w heater had a dome of ice form over it, even while it was running. That dome of ice of course, prevented any gas exchange from occurring and I lost most of my fish during that winter.