It also depends on the hoses you use for your pond and not sure but I know temps can plummet fast and freeze pipes .Are you your pipes exposed or covered and what kind are they how large are they .I wrap mine in pipe insulation and put only mulch over them sense that is an insulator also .How is your filter set up and how fast you think it will freeze .I know tmann lives where it is colder faster and has a better grip on temps at night ,but would help if there was pics of your pond set up .I know my uncle lived in Buffalo NY and the temps can drop in a few hours to below zero with wind chills .So guessing you would know better how your weather changes .I never take chances after last winter and most pond heaters like the KH one I got have a thermostat and come on when needed .Been there done that last winter my pond hose froze in my waterfall and almost emptied my pond out last winter when temps dropped to below zero in a couple of hours and if I had not gotten up and looked out the window at 3 o'clock in the morning and saw caved in ice on the top of my pond ,I would have lost all my fish .I am lucky I have well water and pulled hose out and had to refill pond ,even though it was cold as heck .I had only a foot of water in the pond and gasses or water had went behind the liner .not sure which .It went from 60 degrees to below zero and windy and bitter .NEVER TAKE CHANCES